Methods and means to achieve the research objectives, including interdisciplinarity of the project proposal
This section presents the basis of the methodology followed to assess the socio-economic vulnerability of different ecosystems to fire in monetary terms (ie 2005 EUR).
To address the uncertainty associated with the degree of fire impact and the adoption of a precautionary approach, the worst-case scenario is assumed in terms of the consequences on threatened buildings, populations and ecosystems. The time dimension of damage to ecosystems was predicted by estimating the time required for full recovery under worst-case conditions (n) and discounting the flow of lost services, which is assumed to be permanent. To limit social punishment to the future (the “tyranny of the present”), a hyperbolic discount factor (f) with a discount rate (r) of 2% will be applied (Pettenella et al., 2008).
The temporal integration of carbon stock loss follows a different logic. Given that carbon is reabsorbed after a fire during these years as forests regenerate, the total impact consists of the difference between maintaining stocks and losing them over a period of time. Social preference for the present assumes that the present value of the stock recovered (obtained by applying the discount factor, f’) is lower than the value of the stock lost today.
Estimation of the annual flow of forest products that are susceptible to loss is based on effective productivity. They are calculated as ratios between annual production and productive area. Depending on the specific product, different criteria were used to determine the production area. This focus on efficient forest use is the main difference with previously developed analytical assessment models based on estimates of measurements of annual biomass increase. They instead reflect the potential use of forests (Mavsar et al., 2011a). To capture the net contribution of forests to social welfare, logging costs must be subtracted from prices (Mavsar et al., 2011b). When reliable and site-specific cost data are not available, the prices corresponding to the closest point to each ecosystem can serve as an approximation of the net value of forest production.
The process consists of four consecutive steps: estimate the time period for vegetation recovery; asset valuation; assessment and allocation of losses. Finally, the results will be aggregated at the pixel level.
The above elements will be assessed using economic methods (market prices, hedonic prices, travel costs, transfer of benefits, conditional methods, etc.). The value of material and non-material costs will also be determined according to the existing and used national normative documents, such as “Law on Forests”, “Ordinance No. 8 of May 11, 2012 on the conditions and procedures for the protection of forest territories from fires”17, ” Strategic plan for the development of the forest sector 2014-2023″, “IAG forest protection program from fire”, “ORDINANCE on the assessment of land properties in forest territories”, “METHODOLOGY for assessment and mapping of the state of forests and forest ecosystems and their services in Bulgaria”, “Ordinance on the conditions, order and bodies for analysis, assessment and mapping of disaster risks”, etc.
Through a comparative analysis of the obtained results, the effect of using the developed concept to create a methodology for determining the damage from forest fires will be determined.
It will also review the experience of different countries, the JRC (Joint Research Center) of the EC (European Commission) and international projects (COST Action CA18135, Fire in the Earth System: Science & Society (FIRE links); COST Action CA22141 Integrated DSS for delivery of ecosystem services based on EU forest policies (DSS4ES); CA21158 Enhancing Small-Medium Islands resilience by securing the sustainability of Ecosystem Services; CA21125 A European forum for revitalization of marginalized mountain areas; CA22164 European Network on Extreme fire behavior (NERO); Wildland-urban-interface fire touristic protection solutions; Innovation laboratories for climate action – ILCA), and their applicable methods will be used in the development.
After determining the value of the individual components, the value of the damage caused by the forest fires per unit of forest area will be determined cumulatively, which will facilitate the specialists from the central and regional forest administrations, as well as from the territorial divisions (State Forestry and Hunting Farms, Municipal Forest farms, private forest owners, etc.) in determining the amount and value of damages and damages caused by forest and natural fires. Also, this will help to prepare a cost-benefit analysis of the means of prevention, compared to the means for the damages caused by the forest fires.
The developed methodology concept could also be useful in the training of professionals in the field, as well as students and doctoral students at the Forestry Institute – BAS, the Forestry University, the Technical University and the Academy of the Ministry of the Interior.
The aim of the project is to propose a concept for creating a methodology for determining the real value of damage caused by forest fires (material and immaterial).
The following tasks are proposed to be solved with the proposed project:
Development of a forest fire damage assessment concept;
Assessment of damage from burnt wood at market prices;
Assessment of damage to burnt lands in forest territories at market prices;
Assessment of damage from disruption of ecosystem services and benefits provided by affected forest areas;
Estimation of the cost of extraction of fire-affected wood and of the cost of restoration of plantations;
Estimation of the costs in relation to the time to restore the forest stands to a condition close to that before the disaster;
Assessment of the value of non-material damage caused by the disaster, such as disruption of ecosystems, loss of cultural and historical values, violation of the water protection role of forest territories, creation of conditions for erosion and potential losses from them, increase of CO2 and CH4 levels in the atmosphere, biomass and soils;
Impact of climate change on fire risk;
Assessment of environmental, social and economic damage.